Let me make 1 exception to confirm my rule of never wanting to predict nonlinear dynamic systems (financial markets) unless I've done an adequate analysis.
The best investment of 2008 very well could be:
long the ABX index, the higher tranches
Goldman made most of its earnings where the other IB's lost because it was short the ABX last year. I think given the short analysis I ran on the relevant data there is a pretty large possibility that this could be the reversal of the year. But don't expect me to explain the trade because I'm not an investor in cdo's, it's just a very general hunch/guess.
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